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The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.
As 2020 draws to a close and we release our updated forecasts, our economists were caught daydreaming of a world where their boldest wishes would come true. From our work family to yours, our own Christmas carols playlist to sing loud in every policymaker’s ear.
Two recent events have cleared the way for a second wave of spread tightening, leading them closer to their pre-pandemic levels. 1) the resolution of the US presidential elections and 2) the positive news around the vaccines timeline and availability.
The youth labor market is highly sensitive to economic cycles, with young people more likely to be in precarious employment than any other age group. After the 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC), it took years to recover across Europe and it could take even longer to recover from the impact of Covid-19. The pandemic will hinder human capital accumulation, punishing young workers further and widening already present intergenerational inequalities.
After the Covid-19 lockdowns disrupted global supply chains and put the concepts of supply-chain resilience and reshoring on every policymaker’s lips, we decided to check the pulse of companies in the U.S., the UK, France, Germany and Italy.
Recent monetary developments in the EMU are a reminder that it is simplistic and therefore risky to sum up the fuzzy concept of liquidity with QE as if it was the alpha and omega of monetary phenomena.
